The first hours of Art Basel 2025 reassured a nervous market with headline sales at punchy prices. Annely Juda placed David Hockney’s Mid November Tunnel for a reported $13-17 million, while David Zwirner moved a Ruth Asawa sculpture at $9.5 million and Gerhard Richter at $6.8 million. Pace sold two new Mark Bradford canvases for $3.5 million each; Hauser & Wirth, White Cube and Thaddaeus Ropac all logged seven-figure deals across Rothko, Condo and Rauschenberg.
In Unlimited - the sector for out-sized gestures - collectors chased experiences as much as objects. Félix González-Torres’s 1991 go-go-dance performance carried a $16 million tag; Danh Võ’s timber-and-steel flag In God We Trust went to a U.S. institution, and Martin Kippenberger’s faux-U-Bahn entrance was priced at $3 million. More modest, but sold, were Arlene Shechet’s candy-coloured Midnight ($1.2 million) and Yu Nishimura’s triptych (€375,000). Off-site, Basel Social Club turned a disused bank into a carnival of micro-transactions - from one-franc Koons knock-offs to a functioning casino.
Yet the fair week dissipates against a sobering backdrop. The Art Basel/UBS Art Market Report shows global turnover down 12 % in 2024 to $57.5 billion, with under $10 million auction lots plunging 45 %. Currency swings (a weak dollar versus Swiss franc), war-time nerves, and looming U.S. trade tariffs further spook American buyers, whose absence was felt on the Messeplatz floor. Advisors warn that many secondary-market prices still need realignment before liquidity truly returns.
The bright spot is the lower-priced, emerging tier, visible at Liste. Galleries like Turnus, Suprainfinit and Vin Vin reported sell-outs in the €3,000-16,000 range; Tiwani Contemporary moved Zimbabwean painter Virginia Chihota up to €50,000, and Magenta Plains placed multiple Matt Keegan collages at €5,000. With supply plentiful and risk manageable, institutions and next-gen collectors are betting early on talent.
Looking ahead, expect a split in the year: blue-chip dealers will court scarcity and museum placements while trimming fair footprints; Art Basel’s new “Premiere” section and February’s Doha launch aim to capture ultra-contemporary energy at lower price points. Satellite models - Basel Social Club, Maison CLEARING, design pop-ups - will keep siphoning attention by swapping hard-sell booths for social experiences. If macro-politics stay choppy, 2025 may end with solid transaction volume but flatter values, with momentum concentrated where prices sit comfortably under $1 million - and often under $50,000.