It feels slightly mad to be talking about the end of the year already, but here we are. Next up is Frieze London, followed almost immediately by Art Basel Paris, and then before you know it everyone is heading to Miami and another year in the art world is pretty much done.
For me, the next couple of months feel particularly important. The first half of 2026 was actually stronger than I expected. Coming into the year there was still plenty of uncertainty around the market and, after a difficult couple of years, I don't think many people were expecting a dramatic turnaround. We didn't get one, but we did see signs of life.
Good works were selling, collectors were buying and there seemed to be a little more confidence coming back into the market. It wasn't the madness we saw a few years ago, and I don't think anyone wants or expects that again, but things felt more stable.
Then August arrived which is nearly always quiet in the art world. People disappear, galleries slow down, collectors go away and trying to get anything over the line becomes increasingly difficult. I've learnt over the years not to read too much into it.
What has been more interesting this year is that September hasn't exactly come roaring back. There are conversations happening and people are looking, but everything still feels a little slower than you would expect at this point in the year. Buyers are taking their time and there is still a noticeable amount of caution in the market.
That's why I think October and November are going to tell us quite a lot. Frieze London is always an important moment. For a week, London becomes the centre of the art world and you suddenly have collectors, dealers, galleries and advisers all in the same place. There are exhibitions everywhere, dinners every night and, importantly, people actually talking about art again.
Then the focus moves almost immediately to Paris for Art Basel Paris, which has quickly become one of the most important dates in the international calendar. There are other important fairs around this period too, but London and Paris back-to-back really feel like the point when the autumn market gets properly tested.
And then comes November which could be even more interesting than October. By then we'll have seen the reaction to Frieze and Paris, the major auction houses will be into their autumn sales and we'll have a much clearer idea of whether the confidence we saw returning earlier in the year has carried through.
Then, almost unbelievably, it's Miami. Art Basel Miami Beach has become the unofficial finish line for the international art calendar. By the time everyone leaves Miami in December, attention quickly turns to Christmas and the year is effectively over.
So there really isn't that much time left, but I'm optimistic about the next few months. I'm not expecting the market to suddenly explode back into life, and I actually think a slower, more considered recovery would be healthier in the long run. There are still very good works available, sellers have become more realistic and collectors are increasingly willing to engage when the quality and price are right.
October and November should give us a much better indication of where we really are and after a stronger than expected first half, a very quiet August and a slightly hesitant September, the final stretch of 2026 suddenly feels pretty important… Let's see what happens.